Muhoroni Youth 1–2 Kariobangi Sharks

Muhoroni Youth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kariobangi Sharks

2/11/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 19Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth28%

×Draw31%

Kariobangi Sharks41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muhoroni YouthExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.11

Muhoroni Youth

0.86

Kariobangi Sharks

1.11

Kariobangi Sharks creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 144 away

0.71

creates per match

1.04

1.18

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth

1.18

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw

59%

Muhoroni Youth or Kariobangi Sharks

69%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

72%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

9%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

58%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

21%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

6%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

67%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

30%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

41%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more

28%

level

31%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

41%

Kariobangi Sharks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff