Muhoroni Youth 0–2 GOR Mahia: Result & Stats

Muhoroni Youth

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

GOR Mahia

11/26/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 11Raila Odinga Homa Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth21%

×Draw28%

GOR Mahia50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muhoroni YouthExpected goals in this matchGOR Mahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.33

Muhoroni Youth

0.76

GOR Mahia

1.33

GOR Mahia creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 144 away

0.71

creates per match

1.49

1.18

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

GOR Mahia

1.49

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth

1.18

GOR Mahia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

GOR Mahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw

50%

Muhoroni Youth or GOR Mahia

72%

Draw or GOR Mahia

79%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

6%

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

53%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

18%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

4%

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

74%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

38%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

30%

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more

21%

level

28%

GOR Mahia scores more

50%

GOR Mahia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff