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Muhoroni Youth vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Muhoroni Youth
Muhoroni Youth
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
9/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Muhoroni Youth48%
×Draw30%
Dimba Patriots22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muhoroni Youth
1.25
Dimba Patriots
0.74

Muhoroni Youth creates 69% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth
1.32
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth
0.82
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw
78%
Muhoroni Youth or Dimba Patriots
70%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
52%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+
22%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals
71%
Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals
36%
Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals
13%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
52%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
17%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)
69%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 1.32 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Muhoroni Youth defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more
48%
level
30%
Dimba Patriots scores more
22%

Muhoroni Youth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Muhoroni Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muhoroni Youth vs Dimba Patriots

Dimba Patriots beat Muhoroni Youth 1-0 in Super League on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.