Muhoroni Youth 0–0 Bandari: Result & Stats

Muhoroni Youth

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bandari

5/15/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 27Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muhoroni Youth29%

×Draw33%

Bandari39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muhoroni YouthExpected goals in this matchBandari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

0.99

Muhoroni Youth

0.81

Bandari

0.99

Bandari creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 145 away

0.71

creates per match

0.81

1.18

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Muhoroni Youth

0.71

Bandari

0.81

allows per match

Muhoroni Youth

1.18

Bandari

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muhoroni Youth+0.00on par

Bandari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muhoroni Youth ↓

Bandari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Muhoroni Youth or draw

61%

Muhoroni Youth or Bandari

67%

Draw or Bandari

71%

Winning margin

Muhoroni Youth wins by 2+

9%

Bandari wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Muhoroni Youth 1+ goals

56%

Muhoroni Youth 2+ goals

19%

Muhoroni Youth 3+ goals

5%

Bandari 1+ goals

63%

Bandari 2+ goals

26%

Bandari 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Muhoroni Youth (draw refunded)

43%

Bandari (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muhoroni Youth at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Bandari away — creates 0.81, concedes 0.92 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muhoroni Youth attack 0.71 + Bandari defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Bandari attack 0.81 + Muhoroni Youth defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Muhoroni Youth scores more

29%

level

33%

Bandari scores more

39%

Bandari at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bandari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff