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Muharraq vs Nasaf — AFC Cup 2018

Muharraq
Muharraqadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nasaf
Nasaf
11/5/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · FinalSheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Muharraq54%
×Draw23%
Nasaf23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muharraq
1.80
Nasaf
1.10

Muharraq creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Muharraq
2.00
Nasaf
1.20

allows per match

Muharraq
1.00
Nasaf
1.60

finishing

Muharraq+0.00on par
Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muharraq ↓

Nasaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Muharraq or draw
77%
Muharraq or Nasaf
77%
Draw or Nasaf
46%

Winning margin

Muharraq wins by 2+
30%
Nasaf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Muharraq 1+ goals
83%
Muharraq 2+ goals
54%
Muharraq 3+ goals
27%
Nasaf 1+ goals
67%
Nasaf 2+ goals
30%
Nasaf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Muharraq (draw refunded)
70%
Nasaf (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muharraq at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muharraq attack 2.00 + Nasaf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Nasaf attack 1.20 + Muharraq defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Muharraq scores more
54%
level
23%
Nasaf scores more
23%

Muharraq at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Muharraq 3–0 Nasaf

Muharraq beat Nasaf 3-0 in AFC Cup on November 5, 2021.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.