Muharraq 3–0 Manama: Result & Stats

Muharraq

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Manama

12/14/2024

Premier League · Round 7Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Muharraq51%

×Draw25%

Manama24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuharraqExpected goals in this matchManama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Muharraq

1.60

Manama

1.00

Muharraq creates 60% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 62 away

1.89

creates per match

1.32

0.67

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Muharraq

1.89

Manama

1.32

allows per match

Muharraq

0.67

Manama

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muharraq+0.00on par

Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muharraq ↓

Manama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Muharraq or draw

76%

Muharraq or Manama

75%

Draw or Manama

49%

Winning margin

Muharraq wins by 2+

27%

Manama wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Muharraq 1+ goals

80%

Muharraq 2+ goals

47%

Muharraq 3+ goals

22%

Manama 1+ goals

63%

Manama 2+ goals

26%

Manama 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Muharraq (draw refunded)

68%

Manama (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muharraq at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 70 matches

Manama away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muharraq attack 1.89 + Manama defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.60

Manama attack 1.32 + Muharraq defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Muharraq scores more

51%

level

25%

Manama scores more

24%

Muharraq at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff