Muharraq 1–1 East Riffa: Result & Stats

Muharraq

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

East Riffa

5/21/2025

Premier League · Round 21Khalifa Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Muharraq51%

×Draw26%

East Riffa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuharraqExpected goals in this matchEast Riffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.89

Muharraq

1.48

East Riffa

0.89

Muharraq creates 66% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 61 away

1.89

creates per match

1.10

0.67

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Muharraq

1.89

East Riffa

1.10

allows per match

Muharraq

0.67

East Riffa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muharraq+0.00on par

East Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muharraq ↓

East Riffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Muharraq or draw

77%

Muharraq or East Riffa

74%

Draw or East Riffa

49%

Winning margin

Muharraq wins by 2+

26%

East Riffa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Muharraq 1+ goals

77%

Muharraq 2+ goals

43%

Muharraq 3+ goals

19%

East Riffa 1+ goals

59%

East Riffa 2+ goals

22%

East Riffa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Muharraq (draw refunded)

69%

East Riffa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muharraq at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 70 matches

East Riffa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muharraq attack 1.89 + East Riffa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.48

East Riffa attack 1.10 + Muharraq defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Muharraq scores more

51%

level

26%

East Riffa scores more

23%

Muharraq at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff