Mufulira Wanderers 2–0 Zanaco: Result & Stats

Mufulira Wanderers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zanaco

4/12/2026

Super League · Round 28Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers43%

×Draw31%

Zanaco26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mufulira WanderersExpected goals in this matchZanaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.79

Mufulira Wanderers

1.11

Zanaco

0.79

Mufulira Wanderers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

1.08

creates per match

0.85

0.73

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers

1.08

Zanaco

0.85

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers

0.73

Zanaco

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Zanaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

Zanaco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw

74%

Mufulira Wanderers or Zanaco

69%

Draw or Zanaco

57%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+

18%

Zanaco wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals

67%

Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals

30%

Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals

10%

Zanaco 1+ goals

55%

Zanaco 2+ goals

19%

Zanaco 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)

62%

Zanaco (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Zanaco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.14 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + Zanaco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Zanaco attack 0.85 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more

43%

level

31%

Zanaco scores more

26%

Mufulira Wanderers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mufulira Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff