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Mufulira Wanderers vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019

Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
8/31/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers39%
×Draw33%
Kabwe Warriors29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mufulira Wanderers
1.00
Kabwe Warriors
0.81

Mufulira Wanderers creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers
1.08
Kabwe Warriors
0.90

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers
0.73
Kabwe Warriors
0.92

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par
Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

Kabwe Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw
71%
Mufulira Wanderers or Kabwe Warriors
67%
Draw or Kabwe Warriors
61%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
15%
Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
63%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
26%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
8%
Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
56%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
19%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
58%
Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more
39%
level
33%
Kabwe Warriors scores more
29%

Mufulira Wanderers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mufulira Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mufulira Wanderers vs Kabwe Warriors

Mufulira Wanderers and Kabwe Warriors drew 0-0 in Super League on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Shinde Stadium in Mufulira.