Mufulira Wanderers 2–1 Green Eagles: Result & Stats

Mufulira Wanderers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Green Eagles

3/8/2025

Super League · Round 27Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers40%

×Draw33%

Green Eagles28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mufulira WanderersExpected goals in this matchGreen Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.79

Mufulira Wanderers

1.01

Green Eagles

0.79

Mufulira Wanderers creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

1.08

creates per match

0.86

0.73

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers

1.08

Green Eagles

0.86

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers

0.73

Green Eagles

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par

Green Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

Green Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw

72%

Mufulira Wanderers or Green Eagles

67%

Draw or Green Eagles

60%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Green Eagles wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals

64%

Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals

27%

Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals

8%

Green Eagles 1+ goals

55%

Green Eagles 2+ goals

19%

Green Eagles 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)

59%

Green Eagles (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Green Eagles away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + Green Eagles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Green Eagles attack 0.86 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more

40%

level

33%

Green Eagles scores more

28%

Mufulira Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mufulira Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff