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Mufulira Wanderers vs Green Buffaloes — Super League 2019

Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
1/28/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers43%
×Draw32%
Green Buffaloes25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mufulira Wanderers
1.10
Green Buffaloes
0.77

Mufulira Wanderers creates 43% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers
1.08
Green Buffaloes
0.82

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers
0.73
Green Buffaloes
1.13

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par
Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

Green Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw
75%
Mufulira Wanderers or Green Buffaloes
68%
Draw or Green Buffaloes
57%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
18%
Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
67%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
30%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
10%
Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
54%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
18%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
63%
Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more
43%
level
32%
Green Buffaloes scores more
25%

Mufulira Wanderers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mufulira Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mufulira Wanderers 2–1 Green Buffaloes

Mufulira Wanderers beat Green Buffaloes 2-1 in Super League on January 28, 2026.

The match was played at Shinde Stadium in Mufulira.