Muangthong United 2–0 Army United: Result & Stats

Muangthong United

2 – 0

Army United

7/4/2018

FA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Muangthong United26%

×Draw17%

Army United57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muangthong UnitedExpected goals in this matchArmy United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

3.04

Muangthong United

2.08

Army United

3.04

Army United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

3.50

creates per match

5.33

0.75

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Muangthong United

3.50

Army United

5.33

allows per match

Muangthong United

0.75

Army United

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muangthong United+0.00on par

Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangthong United ↓

Army United →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Muangthong United or draw

43%

Muangthong United or Army United

83%

Draw or Army United

74%

Winning margin

Muangthong United wins by 2+

13%

Army United wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Muangthong United 1+ goals

87%

Muangthong United 2+ goals

61%

Muangthong United 3+ goals

34%

Army United 1+ goals

95%

Army United 2+ goals

80%

Army United 3+ goals

57%

Draw no bet

Muangthong United (draw refunded)

32%

Army United (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muangthong United at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Army United away — creates 5.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muangthong United attack 3.50 + Army United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Army United attack 5.33 + Muangthong United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Muangthong United scores more

26%

level

17%

Army United scores more

57%

Army United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff