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Muangkan United vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Muangkan United
Muangkan United
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
1/23/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 20Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United52%
×Draw22%
Udon Thani26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muangkan United
1.97
Udon Thani
1.34

Muangkan United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Muangkan United
2.00
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Muangkan United
1.53
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw
74%
Muangkan United or Udon Thani
78%
Draw or Udon Thani
48%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+
30%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals
86%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
58%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
31%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
74%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
39%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)
67%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Muangkan United scores more
52%
level
22%
Udon Thani scores more
26%

Muangkan United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muangkan United vs Udon Thani

Muangkan United beat Udon Thani 6-1 in Thai League 2 on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.