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Muangkan United vs Sukhothai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Muangkan United
Muangkan United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
2/18/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United40%
×Draw23%
Sukhothai FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muangkan United
1.73
Sukhothai FC
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Muangkan United
2.00
Sukhothai FC
1.82

allows per match

Muangkan United
1.53
Sukhothai FC
1.47

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par
Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Sukhothai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw
62%
Muangkan United or Sukhothai FC
77%
Draw or Sukhothai FC
60%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+
20%
Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals
82%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
52%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
25%
Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
81%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
50%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)
51%
Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sukhothai FC attack 1.82 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Muangkan United scores more
40%
level
23%
Sukhothai FC scores more
38%

Muangkan United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muangkan United vs Sukhothai FC

Muangkan United beat Sukhothai FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on February 18, 2022.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.