Muangkan United 1–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya

Muangkan United

1 – 0

Nong Bua Pitchaya

2/3/2021

FA Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Muangkan United69%

×Draw16%

Nong Bua Pitchaya16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muangkan UnitedExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.39

Muangkan United

2.98

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.39

Muangkan United creates 114% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

4.40

creates per match

2.18

0.60

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Muangkan United

4.40

Nong Bua Pitchaya

2.18

allows per match

Muangkan United

0.60

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw

84%

Muangkan United or Nong Bua Pitchaya

84%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

31%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+

49%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals

95%

Muangkan United 2+ goals

79%

Muangkan United 3+ goals

56%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

75%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

40%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)

82%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 4.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 4.40 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.98

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.18 + Muangkan United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Muangkan United scores more

69%

level

16%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

16%

Muangkan United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff