Muangkan United 3–2 Navy FC: Result & Stats

Muangkan United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Navy FC

4/23/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 33Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United55%

×Draw22%

Navy FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muangkan UnitedExpected goals in this matchNavy FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

1.27

Muangkan United

2.03

Navy FC

1.27

Muangkan United creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

2.00

creates per match

1.02

1.53

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Muangkan United

2.00

Navy FC

1.02

allows per match

Muangkan United

1.53

Navy FC

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par

Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Navy FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw

76%

Muangkan United or Navy FC

78%

Draw or Navy FC

45%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+

32%

Navy FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals

87%

Muangkan United 2+ goals

60%

Muangkan United 3+ goals

33%

Navy FC 1+ goals

72%

Navy FC 2+ goals

36%

Navy FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)

70%

Navy FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.03

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Muangkan United scores more

55%

level

22%

Navy FC scores more

24%

Muangkan United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff