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Muangkan United vs Nakhon Pathom — Thai League 2 2018

Muangkan United
Muangkan United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
11/17/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United42%
×Draw25%
Nakhon Pathom33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muangkan United
1.50
Nakhon Pathom
1.29

Muangkan United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Muangkan United
2.00
Nakhon Pathom
1.04

allows per match

Muangkan United
1.53
Nakhon Pathom
1.01

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw
67%
Muangkan United or Nakhon Pathom
75%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
58%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+
21%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals
78%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
44%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
19%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
72%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
37%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)
56%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muangkan United scores more
42%
level
25%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
33%

Muangkan United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muangkan United vs Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Pathom beat Muangkan United 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 17, 2021.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.