Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Muangkan United vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Muangkan United
Muangkan United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
4/30/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Muangkan United45%
×Draw23%
Lampang FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muangkan United
1.77
Lampang FC
1.46

Muangkan United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Muangkan United
2.00
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Muangkan United
1.53
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Muangkan United+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangkan United ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Muangkan United or draw
68%
Muangkan United or Lampang FC
77%
Draw or Lampang FC
55%

Winning margin

Muangkan United wins by 2+
24%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Muangkan United 1+ goals
83%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
53%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
26%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
77%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
43%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Muangkan United (draw refunded)
58%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangkan United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangkan United attack 2.00 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Muangkan United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Muangkan United scores more
45%
level
23%
Lampang FC scores more
32%

Muangkan United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Muangkan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muangkan United vs Lampang FC

Lampang FC beat Muangkan United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kanchanaburi Provincial Stadium in Kanchanaburi.