Muang Loei United 1–0 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Muang Loei United

1 – 0

Raj Pracha

4/4/2018

FA Cup · 1st Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Muang Loei United43%

×Draw21%

Raj Pracha36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muang Loei UnitedExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.81

Muang Loei United

2.00

Raj Pracha

1.81

Muang Loei United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

2.25

creates per match

1.63

2.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Muang Loei United

2.25

Raj Pracha

1.63

allows per match

Muang Loei United

2.00

Raj Pracha

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muang Loei United+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muang Loei United ↓

Raj Pracha →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Muang Loei United or draw

64%

Muang Loei United or Raj Pracha

79%

Draw or Raj Pracha

57%

Winning margin

Muang Loei United wins by 2+

24%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Muang Loei United 1+ goals

86%

Muang Loei United 2+ goals

59%

Muang Loei United 3+ goals

32%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

84%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

54%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Muang Loei United (draw refunded)

55%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Muang Loei United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Muang Loei United attack 2.25 + Raj Pracha defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Raj Pracha attack 1.63 + Muang Loei United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Muang Loei United scores more

43%

level

21%

Raj Pracha scores more

36%

Muang Loei United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Muang Loei United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff