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MTK U19 vs Genk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

MTK U19
MTK U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Genk U19
Genk U19
11/3/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundHidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

MTK U1927%
×Draw24%
Genk U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK U19
1.22
Genk U19
1.75

Genk U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

MTK U19
1.33
Genk U19
2.50

allows per match

MTK U19
1.00
Genk U19
1.10

finishing

MTK U19+0.00on par
Genk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK U19 ↓

Genk U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

MTK U19 or draw
50%
MTK U19 or Genk U19
76%
Draw or Genk U19
73%

Winning margin

MTK U19 wins by 2+
11%
Genk U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

MTK U19 1+ goals
70%
MTK U19 2+ goals
34%
MTK U19 3+ goals
12%
Genk U19 1+ goals
83%
Genk U19 2+ goals
52%
Genk U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

MTK U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Genk U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Genk U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK U19 attack 1.33 + Genk U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Genk U19 attack 2.50 + MTK U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

MTK U19 scores more
27%
level
24%
Genk U19 scores more
50%

Genk U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Genk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: MTK U19 1–2 Genk U19

Genk U19 beat MTK U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion in Budapest.