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MTK Budapest vs Sereď — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
2 – 0
Sereď
Sereď
8/1/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

MTK Budapest58%
×Draw19%
Sereď23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
2.39
Sereď
1.46

MTK Budapest creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
2.78
Sereď
1.14

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.78
Sereď
2.00

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Sereď →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
77%
MTK Budapest or Sereď
81%
Draw or Sereď
42%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
37%
Sereď wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
91%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
69%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
42%
Sereď 1+ goals
77%
Sereď 2+ goals
43%
Sereď 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
72%
Sereď (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 2.78 + Sereď defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.39

Sereď attack 1.14 + MTK Budapest defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
58%
level
19%
Sereď scores more
23%

MTK Budapest at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: MTK Budapest 2–0 Sereď

MTK Budapest beat Sereď 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion in Budapest.