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MTK Budapest vs Kozarmisleny FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Kozarmisleny FC
Kozarmisleny FC
1/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

MTK Budapest52%
×Draw19%
Kozarmisleny FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
2.51
Kozarmisleny FC
1.83

MTK Budapest creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
2.78
Kozarmisleny FC
1.88

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.78
Kozarmisleny FC
2.25

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Kozarmisleny FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
72%
MTK Budapest or Kozarmisleny FC
81%
Draw or Kozarmisleny FC
48%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
33%
Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
92%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
71%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
45%
Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals
84%
Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals
54%
Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
65%
Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Kozarmisleny FC away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 2.78 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.51

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.88 + MTK Budapest defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
52%
level
19%
Kozarmisleny FC scores more
28%

MTK Budapest at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MTK Budapest 5 – 2 Kozarmisleny FC

MTK Budapest beat Kozarmisleny FC 5-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2026.