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MTK Budapest vs Gyirmot SE — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gyirmot SE
Gyirmot SE
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MTK Budapest49%
×Draw22%
Gyirmot SE28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
1.89
Gyirmot SE
1.39

MTK Budapest creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
2.78
Gyirmot SE
1.00

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.78
Gyirmot SE
1.00

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
Gyirmot SE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Gyirmot SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
72%
MTK Budapest or Gyirmot SE
78%
Draw or Gyirmot SE
51%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
27%
Gyirmot SE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
85%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
56%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
29%
Gyirmot SE 1+ goals
75%
Gyirmot SE 2+ goals
40%
Gyirmot SE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
63%
Gyirmot SE (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Gyirmot SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 2.78 + Gyirmot SE defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Gyirmot SE attack 1.00 + MTK Budapest defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
49%
level
22%
Gyirmot SE scores more
28%

MTK Budapest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MTK Budapest 0 – 0 Gyirmot SE

MTK Budapest and Gyirmot SE drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia in Budapest.