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MTK Budapest vs Fehérvár FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

MTK Budapest49%
×Draw22%
Fehérvár FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
2.01
Fehérvár FC
1.52

MTK Budapest creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
2.78
Fehérvár FC
1.25

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.78
Fehérvár FC
1.25

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
71%
MTK Budapest or Fehérvár FC
78%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
51%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
28%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
87%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
59%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
32%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
78%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
45%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
63%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 2.78 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.01

Fehérvár FC attack 1.25 + MTK Budapest defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
49%
level
22%
Fehérvár FC scores more
29%

MTK Budapest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MTK Budapest vs Fehérvár FC

MTK Budapest and Fehérvár FC drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.