Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MTK Budapest vs 1. FC Magdeburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

MTK Budapest43%
×Draw19%
1. FC Magdeburg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest
2.69
1. FC Magdeburg
2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest
2.78
1. FC Magdeburg
3.30

allows per match

MTK Budapest
1.78
1. FC Magdeburg
2.60

finishing

MTK Budapest+0.00on par
1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

MTK Budapest or draw
62%
MTK Budapest or 1. FC Magdeburg
81%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
57%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest wins by 2+
26%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

MTK Budapest 1+ goals
93%
MTK Budapest 2+ goals
74%
MTK Budapest 3+ goals
49%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
92%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
72%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)
53%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 3.30, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest attack 2.78 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.69

1. FC Magdeburg attack 3.30 + MTK Budapest defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

MTK Budapest scores more
43%
level
19%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
38%

MTK Budapest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MTK Budapest vs 1. FC Magdeburg

1. FC Magdeburg beat MTK Budapest 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.