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MTK Budapest II vs Szekszárd — NB III - Southwest 2019

MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Szekszárd
Szekszárd
4/13/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 24Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

MTK Budapest II65%
×Draw19%
Szekszárd16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest II
2.36
Szekszárd
1.08

MTK Budapest II creates 119% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest II
2.22
Szekszárd
1.04

allows per match

MTK Budapest II
1.13
Szekszárd
2.49

finishing

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par
Szekszárd+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest II ↓

Szekszárd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MTK Budapest II or draw
84%
MTK Budapest II or Szekszárd
81%
Draw or Szekszárd
35%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+
43%
Szekszárd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals
90%
MTK Budapest II 2+ goals
68%
MTK Budapest II 3+ goals
41%
Szekszárd 1+ goals
66%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
29%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)
80%
Szekszárd (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Szekszárd away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest II attack 2.22 + Szekszárd defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.36

Szekszárd attack 1.04 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

MTK Budapest II scores more
65%
level
19%
Szekszárd scores more
16%

MTK Budapest II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: MTK Budapest II 1–0 Szekszárd

MTK Budapest II beat Szekszárd 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia in Budapest.