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MTK Budapest II vs Majosi — NB III - Southwest 2019

MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Majosi
Majosi
4/5/2026NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 23Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

MTK Budapest II54%
×Draw22%
Majosi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MTK Budapest II
1.91
Majosi
1.19

MTK Budapest II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

MTK Budapest II
2.22
Majosi
1.24

allows per match

MTK Budapest II
1.13
Majosi
1.60

finishing

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par
Majosi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest II ↓

Majosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

MTK Budapest II or draw
76%
MTK Budapest II or Majosi
78%
Draw or Majosi
46%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+
31%
Majosi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals
85%
MTK Budapest II 2+ goals
57%
MTK Budapest II 3+ goals
30%
Majosi 1+ goals
70%
Majosi 2+ goals
33%
Majosi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)
70%
Majosi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Majosi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest II attack 2.22 + Majosi defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Majosi attack 1.24 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MTK Budapest II scores more
54%
level
22%
Majosi scores more
24%

MTK Budapest II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: MTK Budapest II 1–0 Majosi

MTK Budapest II beat Majosi 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia in Budapest.