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Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Simba
Simba
M. Anthony 22', 20'
C. Chama 80'
F. Ngoma 44'
E. Onana 8'
J. Baleke Othos 5'
8/17/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 1Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar13%
×Draw21%
Simba66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
0.72
Simba
1.93

Simba creates 168% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
0.88
Simba
2.11

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.75
Simba
0.56

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
34%
Mtibwa Sugar or Simba
79%
Draw or Simba
87%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
4%
Simba wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
51%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
16%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
4%
Simba 1+ goals
85%
Simba 2+ goals
57%
Simba 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
17%
Simba (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Simba away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.88 + Simba defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Simba attack 2.11 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
13%
level
21%
Simba scores more
66%

Simba at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Baleke Othos
8'
E. Onana
20'
M. Anthony
22'
M. Anthony
44'
F. Ngoma
80'
C. Chama

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mtibwa Sugar vs Simba

Simba beat Mtibwa Sugar 4-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on August 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Baleke Othos (5'), E. Onana (8'), M. Anthony (20', 22'), F. Ngoma (44'), C. Chama (80').

The match was played at Manungu Stadium in Turiani.