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Mtibwa Sugar vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mtibwa Sugar
Mtibwa Sugar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
S. O. Ibrahim 78'
K. Paterne 90'
12/16/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 16Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar26%
×Draw26%
Namungo47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mtibwa Sugar
1.02
Namungo
1.46

Namungo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar
0.88
Namungo
1.17

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar
1.75
Namungo
1.17

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw
53%
Mtibwa Sugar or Namungo
74%
Draw or Namungo
74%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+
10%
Namungo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals
64%
Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals
27%
Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals
8%
Namungo 1+ goals
77%
Namungo 2+ goals
43%
Namungo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)
36%
Namungo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Namungo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 0.88 + Namungo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Namungo attack 1.17 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more
26%
level
26%
Namungo scores more
47%

Namungo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
C. Ilanfya
78'
S. O. Ibrahim
90'
K. Paterne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mtibwa Sugar 1 – 1 Namungo

Mtibwa Sugar and Namungo drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 16, 2022.

Goals: S. O. Ibrahim (78'), K. Paterne (90').

The match was played at Manungu Stadium in Turiani.