Mtibwa Sugar 2–3 Ihefu: Result & Stats

Mtibwa Sugar

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ihefu

2/12/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 15Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar47%

×Draw29%

Ihefu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mtibwa SugarExpected goals in this matchIhefu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.81

Mtibwa Sugar

1.27

Ihefu

0.81

Mtibwa Sugar creates 57% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 47 away

1.08

creates per match

0.57

1.06

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.08

Ihefu

0.57

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.06

Ihefu

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Ihefu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw

76%

Mtibwa Sugar or Ihefu

71%

Draw or Ihefu

53%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

22%

Ihefu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

72%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

36%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

14%

Ihefu 1+ goals

56%

Ihefu 2+ goals

19%

Ihefu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

67%

Ihefu (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.08 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

47%

level

29%

Ihefu scores more

24%

Mtibwa Sugar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff