Mtibwa Sugar 1–1 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Mtibwa Sugar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Coastal Union

I. Tiote 84'

I. Ajibu 70'

8/20/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 2Manungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar39%

×Draw28%

Coastal Union33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mtibwa SugarExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.09

Mtibwa Sugar

1.22

Coastal Union

1.09

Mtibwa Sugar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 35 away

1.15

creates per match

0.80

1.39

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.15

Coastal Union

0.80

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.39

Coastal Union

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw

67%

Mtibwa Sugar or Coastal Union

72%

Draw or Coastal Union

61%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

17%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

70%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

34%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

12%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

66%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

30%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

54%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.15 + Coastal Union defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Coastal Union attack 0.80 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

39%

level

28%

Coastal Union scores more

33%

Mtibwa Sugar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mtibwa Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

I. Ajibu

84'

I. Tiote

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff