Mtibwa Sugar 0–2 Azam: Result & Stats

Mtibwa Sugar

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Azam

5/6/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Mtibwa Sugar29%

×Draw30%

Azam41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mtibwa SugarExpected goals in this matchAzam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.18

Mtibwa Sugar

0.94

Azam

1.18

Azam creates 26% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 111 away

1.08

creates per match

1.29

1.06

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.08

Azam

1.29

allows per match

Mtibwa Sugar

1.06

Azam

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mtibwa Sugar+0.00on par

Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mtibwa Sugar ↓

Azam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mtibwa Sugar or draw

59%

Mtibwa Sugar or Azam

70%

Draw or Azam

71%

Winning margin

Mtibwa Sugar wins by 2+

10%

Azam wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mtibwa Sugar 1+ goals

61%

Mtibwa Sugar 2+ goals

24%

Mtibwa Sugar 3+ goals

7%

Azam 1+ goals

69%

Azam 2+ goals

33%

Azam 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mtibwa Sugar (draw refunded)

41%

Azam (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mtibwa Sugar at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.06 · 97 matches

Azam away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mtibwa Sugar attack 1.08 + Azam defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Azam attack 1.29 + Mtibwa Sugar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mtibwa Sugar scores more

29%

level

30%

Azam scores more

41%

Azam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff