Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mt Druitt Town vs Western Sydney Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2026

Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
J. Stewart 90+3', 21'
S. Monahan-Vaiika 69'
L. Constable 7'
8/29/2020New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 5Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mt Druitt Town41%
×Draw24%
Western Sydney Wanderers36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mt Druitt Town
1.65
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 8 away

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.29
Western Sydney Wanderers
1.13

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.94
Western Sydney Wanderers
2.00

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw
64%
Mt Druitt Town or Western Sydney Wanderers
76%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers
59%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
21%
Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
81%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
49%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
78%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
53%
Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 69 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.29 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.13 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more
41%
level
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
36%

Mt Druitt Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
L. Constable
21'
J. Stewart
69'
S. Monahan-Vaiika
90+3'
J. Stewart

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mt Druitt Town 3 – 1 Western Sydney Wanderers

Mt Druitt Town beat Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on August 29, 2020.

Goals: L. Constable (7'), J. Stewart (21', 90+3'), S. Monahan-Vaiika (69').

The match was played at Popondetta Park in Emerton.