Mt Druitt Town 1–1 North Shore Mariners

Mt Druitt Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

North Shore Mariners

M. Jeffrey 77'

Unknown 49'

9/5/2020

New South Wales NPL · Round 6Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mt Druitt Town36%

×Draw23%

North Shore Mariners41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mt Druitt TownExpected goals in this matchNorth Shore Mariners

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.72

Mt Druitt Town

1.59

North Shore Mariners

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 30 away

1.29

creates per match

1.50

1.94

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.29

North Shore Mariners

1.50

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.94

North Shore Mariners

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

North Shore Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

North Shore Mariners →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw

59%

Mt Druitt Town or North Shore Mariners

77%

Draw or North Shore Mariners

64%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

17%

North Shore Mariners wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

80%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

47%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

21%

North Shore Mariners 1+ goals

82%

North Shore Mariners 2+ goals

51%

North Shore Mariners 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

46%

North Shore Mariners (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 69 matches

North Shore Mariners away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.29 + North Shore Mariners defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

North Shore Mariners attack 1.50 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more

36%

level

23%

North Shore Mariners scores more

41%

North Shore Mariners at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "North Shore Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

77'

M. Jeffrey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff