Mt Druitt Town 2–1 Macarthur Rams: Result & Stats

Mt Druitt Town

FT

2 – 1

Macarthur Rams

3/9/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 5Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mt Druitt Town50%

×Draw23%

Macarthur Rams26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mt Druitt TownExpected goals in this matchMacarthur Rams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.25

Mt Druitt Town

1.81

Macarthur Rams

1.25

Mt Druitt Town creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 56 away

1.77

creates per match

0.95

1.54

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.77

Macarthur Rams

0.95

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.54

Macarthur Rams

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Macarthur Rams+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Macarthur Rams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw

74%

Mt Druitt Town or Macarthur Rams

77%

Draw or Macarthur Rams

50%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

28%

Macarthur Rams wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

84%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

54%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

27%

Macarthur Rams 1+ goals

71%

Macarthur Rams 2+ goals

36%

Macarthur Rams 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

66%

Macarthur Rams (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Macarthur Rams away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.77 + Macarthur Rams defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Macarthur Rams attack 0.95 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more

50%

level

23%

Macarthur Rams scores more

26%

Mt Druitt Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff