Mt Druitt Town 0–3 Heidelberg United

Mt Druitt Town

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Heidelberg United

8/30/2023

Australia Cup · Round of 16Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mt Druitt Town13%

×Draw17%

Heidelberg United70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mt Druitt TownExpected goals in this matchHeidelberg United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.50

Mt Druitt Town

1.00

Heidelberg United

2.50

Heidelberg United creates 150% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

2.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town

1.00

Heidelberg United

2.67

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town

2.33

Heidelberg United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Heidelberg United →

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw

30%

Mt Druitt Town or Heidelberg United

83%

Draw or Heidelberg United

87%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

63%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

26%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

92%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

71%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

16%

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.00 + Heidelberg United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Heidelberg United attack 2.67 + Mt Druitt Town defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more

13%

level

17%

Heidelberg United scores more

70%

Heidelberg United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff