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Mt Druitt Town vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
8/24/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 30Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mt Druitt Town56%
×Draw21%
Dunbar Rovers23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mt Druitt Town
2.07
Dunbar Rovers
1.24

Mt Druitt Town creates 67% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.77
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.54
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw
77%
Mt Druitt Town or Dunbar Rovers
79%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
44%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
34%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
87%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
61%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
34%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
71%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
35%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
71%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.77 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.07

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more
56%
level
21%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
23%

Mt Druitt Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mt Druitt Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mt Druitt Town vs Dunbar Rovers

Mt Druitt Town beat Dunbar Rovers 6-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Popondetta Park in Emerton.