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MSV Neuruppin vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

MSV Neuruppin
MSV Neuruppin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stern
Stern
2/13/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 16Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

MSV Neuruppin41%
×Draw25%
Stern34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Neuruppin
1.54
Stern
1.38

MSV Neuruppin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

creates per match

MSV Neuruppin
1.31
Stern
1.29

allows per match

MSV Neuruppin
1.47
Stern
1.76

finishing

MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Neuruppin ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

MSV Neuruppin or draw
66%
MSV Neuruppin or Stern
75%
Draw or Stern
59%

Winning margin

MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+
20%
Stern wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals
79%
MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals
45%
MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals
20%
Stern 1+ goals
75%
Stern 2+ goals
40%
Stern 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)
55%
Stern (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Neuruppin at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.31 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Stern attack 1.29 + MSV Neuruppin defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

MSV Neuruppin scores more
41%
level
25%
Stern scores more
34%

MSV Neuruppin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "MSV Neuruppin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: MSV Neuruppin 1–1 Stern

MSV Neuruppin and Stern drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Neuruppin.