MSV Düsseldorf 2–2 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

MSV Düsseldorf

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

TVD Velbert

11/6/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf46%

×Draw23%

TVD Velbert31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.46

MSV Düsseldorf

1.81

TVD Velbert

1.46

MSV Düsseldorf creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 72 away

1.55

creates per match

1.38

1.55

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf

1.55

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw

69%

MSV Düsseldorf or TVD Velbert

77%

Draw or TVD Velbert

54%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+

25%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals

84%

MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals

54%

MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals

27%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

77%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

43%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

59%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.81

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more

46%

level

23%

TVD Velbert scores more

31%

MSV Düsseldorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff