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MSV Düsseldorf vs Kleve — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kleve
Kleve
3/12/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 28Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf45%
×Draw23%
Kleve31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Düsseldorf
1.76
Kleve
1.43

MSV Düsseldorf creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
Kleve
1.31

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
Kleve
1.97

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par
Kleve+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

Kleve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw
69%
MSV Düsseldorf or Kleve
77%
Draw or Kleve
55%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
24%
Kleve wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
83%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
52%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
26%
Kleve 1+ goals
76%
Kleve 2+ goals
42%
Kleve 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
59%
Kleve (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Kleve away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.97 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + Kleve defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.76

Kleve attack 1.31 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more
45%
level
23%
Kleve scores more
31%

MSV Düsseldorf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: MSV Düsseldorf 1–2 Kleve

Kleve beat MSV Düsseldorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse in Düsseldorf.