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MSV Düsseldorf vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
5/7/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 37Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MSV Düsseldorf57%
×Draw21%
FSV Duisburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Düsseldorf
2.12
FSV Duisburg
1.24

MSV Düsseldorf creates 71% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

creates per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

MSV Düsseldorf
1.55
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Düsseldorf ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

MSV Düsseldorf or draw
78%
MSV Düsseldorf or FSV Duisburg
79%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
43%

Winning margin

MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
35%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
88%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
62%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
35%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
71%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
35%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
72%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Düsseldorf attack 1.55 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.12

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

MSV Düsseldorf scores more
57%
level
21%
FSV Duisburg scores more
22%

MSV Düsseldorf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "MSV Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: MSV Düsseldorf 4–1 FSV Duisburg

MSV Düsseldorf beat FSV Duisburg 4-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz GS Heidelberger Strasse in Düsseldorf.