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MSV Duisburg vs FC Eindhoven — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg
FT
6 – 1
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
1/8/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

MSV Duisburg52%
×Draw21%
FC Eindhoven27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg
2.05
FC Eindhoven
1.43

MSV Duisburg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg
2.57
FC Eindhoven
1.15

allows per match

MSV Duisburg
1.71
FC Eindhoven
1.54

finishing

MSV Duisburg+0.00on par
FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg or draw
73%
MSV Duisburg or FC Eindhoven
79%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
48%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg wins by 2+
30%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg 1+ goals
87%
MSV Duisburg 2+ goals
61%
MSV Duisburg 3+ goals
33%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
76%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
42%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
66%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg attack 2.57 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.05

FC Eindhoven attack 1.15 + MSV Duisburg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

MSV Duisburg scores more
52%
level
21%
FC Eindhoven scores more
27%

MSV Duisburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MSV Duisburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg vs FC Eindhoven

MSV Duisburg beat FC Eindhoven 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2024.

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.