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MSV Duisburg vs Beerschot VA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg
Preview
16:00
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
7/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
49%
Beerschot VA
model favours
31%20%49%

Beerschot VA have scored in 13 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
80%
over 2.5 goals
77%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

MSV Duisburg31%
×Draw20%
Beerschot VA49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg
1.90
Beerschot VA
2.41

Beerschot VA creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg
2.57
Beerschot VA
3.11

allows per match

MSV Duisburg
1.71
Beerschot VA
1.22

finishing

MSV Duisburg+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg or draw
51%
MSV Duisburg or Beerschot VA
80%
Draw or Beerschot VA
69%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg wins by 2+
16%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg 1+ goals
85%
MSV Duisburg 2+ goals
56%
MSV Duisburg 3+ goals
29%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
91%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
69%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
39%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg attack 2.57 + Beerschot VA defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.90

Beerschot VA attack 3.11 + MSV Duisburg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MSV Duisburg scores more
31%
level
20%
Beerschot VA scores more
49%

Beerschot VA at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Beerschot VA score first in only 23% of matches
  • 69% of Beerschot VA’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Duisburg
WWDLL
VA
WLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: MSV Duisburg host Beerschot VA

July 22, 2026: MSV Duisburg take on Beerschot VA in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.