Beerschot VA 0–1 MSV Duisburg: Result & Stats

Beerschot VA

0 – 1

MSV Duisburg

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportanlage SuS Kaiserau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beerschot VA47%

×Draw28%

MSV Duisburg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beerschot VAExpected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.90

Beerschot VA

1.34

MSV Duisburg

0.90

Beerschot VA creates 49% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Beerschot VA

1.40

MSV Duisburg

1.00

allows per match

Beerschot VA

0.80

MSV Duisburg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beerschot VA ↓

MSV Duisburg →

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Beerschot VA or draw

75%

Beerschot VA or MSV Duisburg

72%

Draw or MSV Duisburg

53%

Winning margin

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

22%

MSV Duisburg wins by 2+

Team goals

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

74%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

39%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

15%

MSV Duisburg 1+ goals

59%

MSV Duisburg 2+ goals

23%

MSV Duisburg 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

65%

MSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Beerschot VA at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

MSV Duisburg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Beerschot VA attack 1.40 + MSV Duisburg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

MSV Duisburg attack 1.00 + Beerschot VA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beerschot VA scores more

47%

level

28%

MSV Duisburg scores more

25%

Beerschot VA at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff