MSV Duisburg U19 2–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

M. Özgen 76'

Y. Scholl 3'

2/2/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 1BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1956%

×Draw22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.21

MSV Duisburg U19

2.01

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.21

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 54 away

1.59

creates per match

0.96

1.45

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.59

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.45

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

77%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

78%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

44%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

87%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

59%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

32%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

70%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

34%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.59 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.01

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

56%

level

22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

23%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Y. Scholl

63'

B. Özbek← S. Gawryluk

67'

L. Blume← L. Gashi

76'

M. Özgen

78'

D. Kolzok← F. Meurer

78'

H. Krasenbrink← N. Slavytskyi

78'

F. Jurisic← L. Bittner

78'

Y. Pirnal← K. Kaya

89'

N. König← G. Sadlek

MSV

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Jahn

67'▲L. Blume←▼L. Gashi

78'▲D. Kolzok←▼F. Meurer

78'▲H. Krasenbrink←▼N. Slavytskyi

89'▲N. König←▼G. Sadlek

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

BlumeKolzokKrasenbrinkKönigFrederikBarnes

Manager: S. Hohenberg

63'▲B. Özbek←▼S. Gawryluk

78'▲F. Jurisic←▼L. Bittner

78'▲Y. Pirnal←▼K. Kaya

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

ÖzbekJurisicPirnalKaratzidisYousfiChenDrießen