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MSV Duisburg U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Paderborn U19
Paderborn U19
5/4/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1937%
×Draw22%
Paderborn U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg U19
1.68
Paderborn U19
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 58 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.57
Paderborn U19
2.12

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.44
Paderborn U19
1.78

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par
Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw
59%
MSV Duisburg U19 or Paderborn U19
78%
Draw or Paderborn U19
63%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
18%
Paderborn U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
81%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
50%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
24%
Paderborn U19 1+ goals
83%
Paderborn U19 2+ goals
53%
Paderborn U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.78 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Paderborn U19 attack 2.12 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
37%
level
22%
Paderborn U19 scores more
41%

Paderborn U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Paderborn U19

Paderborn U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.