MSV Duisburg U19 0–3 Hoffenheim U19: Result & Stats

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Hoffenheim U19

M. Faß 41'

M. Moerstedt 12'

D. Obiogumu 8'

5/7/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 1BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1930%

×Draw21%

Hoffenheim U1949%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchHoffenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.13

MSV Duisburg U19

1.66

Hoffenheim U19

2.13

Hoffenheim U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 76 away

1.57

creates per match

2.79

1.46

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.57

Hoffenheim U19

2.79

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.46

Hoffenheim U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

51%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Hoffenheim U19

79%

Draw or Hoffenheim U19

70%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

15%

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

81%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

49%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

23%

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals

88%

Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals

63%

Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.79, concedes 1.75 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.79 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

30%

level

21%

Hoffenheim U19 scores more

49%

Hoffenheim U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

12'

41'

46'

56'

63'

63'

N. Sørensen← D. Obiogumu

63'

P. Hennrich← T. Drexler

68'

D. Zogu← N. Kashama

68'

L. Heck← E. Moussa

68'

S. Tasic← J. Maluze

73'

B. Huber← Y. Hör

76'

M. Rehuš← F. Micheler

MSV

Hoffenheim

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Obiogumu

⚽

Moerstedt

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Vural

46'▲G. Sadlek←▼G. Nrejaj

56'▲D. Kanzi←▼L. Linnig

68'▲D. Zogu←▼N. Kashama

68'▲L. Heck←▼E. Moussa

68'▲S. Tasic←▼J. Maluze

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

SadlekKanziZoguHeckTasicAdamidisKiyau

Manager: S. Schmitt

63'▲B. Makanda←▼M. Faß

63'▲N. Sørensen←▼D. Obiogumu

63'▲P. Hennrich←▼T. Drexler

73'▲B. Huber←▼Y. Hör

76'▲M. Rehuš←▼F. Micheler

Hoffenheim U19 substitutes

MakandaSørensenHennrichHuberRehušStroblPhilipp

U19 Bundesliga: MSV Duisburg U19 0–3 Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 7, 2023.

Goals: D. Obiogumu (8'), M. Moerstedt (12'), M. Faß (41').

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.

MSV Duisburg U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: MSV Duisburg U19 0–3 Hoffenheim U19