MSV Duisburg U19 2–1 Hilden U19: Result & Stats

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hilden U19

L. Blažević 90', 58' (pen)

M. Beinhauer 14'

3/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 14BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1953%

×Draw21%

Hilden U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.39

MSV Duisburg U19

2.06

Hilden U19

1.39

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.33

1.44

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.57

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.44

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

74%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Hilden U19

79%

Draw or Hilden U19

47%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

31%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

87%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

61%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

34%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

75%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

40%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

Hilden U19 scores more

26%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Beinhauer

58'

L. BlaževićPenalty

62'

B. Potnar← V. Ismailji

68'

D. Kanzi← J. Bugenhagen

76'

D. Zogu← D. Wieczorek

81'

E. Dervis← C. Mockschan

81'

P. Spittmann← C. Kayser

88'

L. Heck← A. Dziho

90'

F. Bachmann

90'

L. Blažević

MSV

Hilden

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: E. Vural

68'▲D. Kanzi←▼J. Bugenhagen

76'▲D. Zogu←▼D. Wieczorek

88'▲L. Heck←▼A. Dziho

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

KanziZoguHeckKurtGrehlKiyauMeyer

Manager: P. Schütz

62'▲B. Potnar←▼V. Ismailji

81'▲E. Dervis←▼C. Mockschan

81'▲P. Spittmann←▼C. Kayser

Hilden U19 substitutes

PotnarDervisSpittmannThesisSchwarzMajeticLiampos

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Hilden U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Hilden U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 4, 2023.

Goals: M. Beinhauer (14'), L. Blažević (58' pen, 90').

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.

MSV Duisburg U19 vs Hilden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: MSV Duisburg U19 vs Hilden U19