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MSV Duisburg U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
11/4/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1925%
×Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg U19
1.38
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.09

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.57
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.74

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.44
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.19

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw
46%
MSV Duisburg U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19
79%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
75%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
11%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
75%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
40%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
16%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
88%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
62%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.19 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.38

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.74 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
25%
level
21%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
54%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: MSV Duisburg U19 3–1 Borussia Dortmund U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Borussia Dortmund U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.