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MSV Duisburg U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

MSV Duisburg U19
MSV Duisburg U19
FT
3 – 6
HT: 2 – 2
Bochum U19
Bochum U19
4/16/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 3BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1934%
×Draw23%
Bochum U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Duisburg U19
1.54
Bochum U19
1.78

Bochum U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.57
Bochum U19
2.13

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19
1.44
Bochum U19
1.52

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw
56%
MSV Duisburg U19 or Bochum U19
77%
Draw or Bochum U19
66%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+
16%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals
79%
MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals
45%
MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals
20%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
83%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
53%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more
34%
level
23%
Bochum U19 scores more
44%

Bochum U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: MSV Duisburg U19 3–6 Bochum U19

Bochum U19 beat MSV Duisburg U19 6-3 in U19 Bundesliga on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.